2021 Super Bowl Odds Vegas Super Bowl LV Odds, Current Lines & Prop Bets. Super Bowl 55 and the 2020/21 season will be one that we will not forget any time soon, with the pandemic leaving NFL stadiums empty across the nation, the re-seducing of games weekly and a impact to each and every one of us, and that is before the final chapter plays out on February 7th when the raining champion Patrick.
We take a look at four NFL Week 1 moneyline bets you can make at BetMGM following the release of the 2020 NFL schedule. Get an early edge on the betting odds and lines before rosters begin to finalize. Also see – Week 1 NFL betting lines up at BetMGM: Chiefs, 49ers among biggest favorites. For example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135. — NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) May 8, 2015 The Vig Vig is a commission for the bookies. But a money line type of bet makes it difficult to see the commission because they charge more on the favorite team. It works like overcharging and underpaying systems for the bettors. Money line Benefits Moneyline betting gives potential advantages to the bettors.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL it’s simple. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. There’s no point spread involved. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage chances of a team winning outright.
For example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135.
What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. Each chart below shows two money lines. The first is the “expected moneyline”. We took the win percentages for all NFL games since 1980 at each line and converted them into a money line. The “actual moneyline” is what a typical sportsbook would set for each spread.
Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 63.61% of the time. If you look at the chart we’ve converted that to a money line of -175 (expected moneyline). The problem is a book would make you pay around -206 (actual moneyline) for a -3.5-point favorite. Thus, it’s obviously not a good bet.
The same goes for underdogs. Say you see a home underdog of +2 and decide you might as well take the money line. The actual line you would get would be something close to +105. The expected moneyline for 2-point home underdogs is +119. If the actual moneyline comes in lower than the expected moneyline then history says you are not getting value on your wager.
As you’ll see, it’s pretty rare to find instances where taking the money line is a valuable play. There are obviously significant differences between certain situations. So, I’ve broken the data into four groups: home favorites, road favorites, home underdogs and road underdogs.
*Please note that some higher lines did not have enough games to qualify as significant data. For those games we used estimated win percentages to better represent those numbers.
NFL Money Line Conversion Charts
Now for the road favorites…
Here are the road underdogs.
And finally….home underdogs.
Handicapping NFL games isn’t easy. But, hopefully this will give you another tool to use against the sportsbooks. If you consider converting the point spreads into expected moneylines on any given game you might find a couple more winners.
As with everything in gambling, the house almost always has the edge. This certainly doesn’t mean you have to avoid betting moneylines in the NFL, but check these charts to make sure you are maximizing the value of those wagers.
You’ll also notice that it’s better to do a two-team 6 point teaser on favorites of 6 or 7 points instead of doing a money line parlay. That’s just one of the reasons we love NFL teaser wagers so much.
Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage
The table below shows the expected wining percentage at each point spread for the favorite and underdog. This is the complete odds conversion table for the NFL.
| Point Spread | Favorite Win Chance | Underdog Win Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 0.5 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 1 | 51.30% | 48.80% |
| 1.5 | 52.50% | 47.50% |
| 2 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 2.5 | 54.50% | 45.50% |
| 3 | 59.40% | 40.60% |
| 3.5 | 64.30% | 35.70% |
| 4 | 65.80% | 34.20% |
| 4.5 | 67.30% | 32.70% |
| 5 | 68.10% | 31.90% |
| 5.5 | 69.00% | 31.10% |
| 6 | 70.70% | 29.40% |
| 6.5 | 72.40% | 27.70% |
| 7 | 75.20% | 24.80% |
| 7.5 | 78.10% | 21.90% |
| 8 | 79.10% | 20.90% |
| 8.5 | 80.20% | 19.80% |
| 9 | 80.70% | 19.30% |
| 9.5 | 81.10% | 18.90% |
| 10 | 83.60% | 16.40% |
| 10.5 | 86.00% | 14.00% |
| 11 | 87.10% | 12.90% |
| 11.5 | 88.20% | 11.80% |
| 12 | 88.50% | 11.60% |
| 12.5 | 88.70% | 11.30% |
| 13 | 89.30% | 10.70% |
| 13.5 | 90.00% | 10.00% |
| 14 | 92.40% | 7.60% |
| 14.5 | 94.90% | 5.10% |
| 15 | 95.60% | 4.40% |
| 15.5 | 96.30% | 3.70% |
| 16 | 98.10% | 1.90% |
| 16.5 | 99.80% | 0.20% |
| 17 & Up | 100.00% | 0.00% |
More Spread & Money Line Conversion Charts
© Mike Ehrmann/Getty Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs makes adjustments at the line of scrimmage in the second quarter during their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 29, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. The Chiefs and the Bucs meet in Super Bowl LV.For the first time in almost a decade, two teams that have met in the regular season will contest the Super Bowl.
When the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cross path in Super Bowl LV on Sunday, they will become the first two franchises to collide in the NFL championship game after meeting in the regular season since the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI.
Super Bowl LV Preview: Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In the 13 times the rematch of a regular season meeting has taken place in the Super Bowl, the teams that won the regular season matchup have won on six occasions. That bodes well for the Bucs, who lost 27-24 when the Chiefs visited Raymond James Stadium in Week 12 of the regular season.
Here's a look at the main betting trends ahead of Super Bowl LV.
Moneyline
The Chiefs are the consensus favorites, with odds ranging from 3-5 at BetMGM to 8-13 at DraftKings, while the Bucs are 7-5 with both sportsbooks.
Kansas City is 16-1 with Patrick Mahomes as a starter this season and hasn't lost a playoff game since the 2018 AFC Championship Game, when a certain Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a 37-31 win at Arrowhead Stadium.
According to data from BetMGM, 12 percent of tickets—the number of total bets—and 34 percent of the handle the total amount of money staked—ahead of Super Bowl LV has gone on the Chiefs, while the Bucs have commanded nine percent of the tickets and 11 percent of the handle respectively.
'The public loves Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs but sharp bettors have not wagered on either team,' Jason Scott, VP of Trading at BetMGM, told Newsweek.
Worryingly for the Bucs, favorite teams are 35-19 straight up in Super Bowl history and AFC teams have won four of the last five Super Bowls.
Spread
Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved and the Chiefs are consensus three-point favorite and 19-20 to cover the spread with BetMGM and 5-6 with DraftKings respectively.
Bookmakers, however, have indicated the line could move again towards the reigning Super Bowl champions.
'Despite seeing most of the early action we moved the line to -3 after significant action from our sharpest football players,' Pat Morrow, Head Oddsmaker at Bovada, told Newsweek.
'Since the move, betting trends have remained the same with the Chiefs -3 seeing 75 percent of the action. If we continue to see this one way betting on the Chiefs, I would not be surprised if the line moved back to -3.5.'
The Chiefs have won 16 of the 18 games they have played this season, but they are a modest 8-10 against the spread and 7-9 against the spread in games they entered as favorites.
Nfl Money Line Odds On Vegas Insider
Mahomes, however, is 27-13-1 against the spread in games in which the Chiefs were not a double-digit favorite.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 11-8 against the spread, covering by an average of 4.2 points per game.
More significantly, the Bucs are 4-1 against the spread—the NFL's joint-best winning percentage this season—as the underdog and Brady is 40-17-2 in the same scenario in his career.
Tom Brady, however, is 4-5 against the spread in his nine appearances in the Big Game and while betting against six-time Super Bowl champion remains a risky exercise, some bookmakers don't expect Brady's first season in Tampa to have a fairytale end.
'With the Chiefs outright favourites from the start of the season and now 1-2 to win on Sunday, the 'Tom Brady effect' could be a red herring,' a Unikrn spokesperson told Newsweek.
'The market [is] suggesting this game is a bridge too far for Brady to cross.'
Nfl Week 3 Money Line Odds
Super Bowl LV marks the first time Brady enters the NFL championship game as an underdog since the Patriots were 14-point underdogs against the St. Louis Rams in 2002, Brady's first appearance in the Super Bowl.
Favorites are 27-25-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl and have covered in the last two and three of the last four.
Total points
The over/under line in terms of total points scored opened at 57—the second-highest in Super Bowl history behind only Super Bowl LI—but has since moved down to 56.
Picking the over/under is historically difficult when it comes to the Super Bowl, where the record stands at 26-26-1—no over/under data is available for Super Bowl I. In the past 20 years, 10 Super Bowls have gone over and 10, including the last two, have gone under.
The picture has been similarly balanced for the Chiefs and the Bucs this season, with the over hitting in nine of Kansas City's 18 games and in 11 of the Bucs' 19 games.
The Bucs and the Chiefs have the second-best and fifth-best offense in the NFL in terms of points scored this season, at an average of 30.7 and 29.6 points per game respectively.
Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in its last 10 straight games—including the 27-24 loss at home to Kansas City in Week 12 of the regular season—and arrives in Super Bowl LV on the back of a franchise-record streak of scoring at least 30 points in six consecutive games, while the Chiefs have scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven playoff games.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have allowed 22.3 points per game, while the Chiefs have allowed and 22.4, respectively the ninth- and tenth-lowest total in the NFL.
Moneyline Odds Nfl
Dig a bit deeper, however, and the gap between the defenses is wider than those figures suggest. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are third in DVOA defensive ratings, while the Chiefs rank 22nd.
Nba Moneyline Odds
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